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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

However the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still